Monday, March 08, 2010

CLOSING BELL

Dow 10552.52  -13.68, Nasdaq 2332.21  +5.86, S&P 1138.50  -0.20 

A lack of market-moving headlines and other trading catalysts made the markets trade in a tight trading range with low volume today. In fact the NYSE had what was this year's second-smallest level of volume.

Even the dollar which had been down roughly -0.4% at its session low didn’t do much to cause traders to jump in and recovered later in the day to finish flat.

Large cap stocks helped the Nasdaq close higher today.  Research In Motion (RIMM) 73.39 +3.89, +5.60%, Cisco (CSCO) 26.13 +0.92, +3.65% had a good day and  Apple (AAPL) 219.08 +0.13, +0.06% hit a 52 week high today at 220.09 before pulling back.

McDonalds (MCD) 65.12 +1.45, +2.28% also hit a 52 week high today at 65.75 before pulling back.  The move was on news that global sales rose +4.8 percent in February, topping some analysts’ estimates, as demand in Asia countered snow-hampered results in the U.S.

Advancing Sectors: Telecom +1.1%, Consumer Discretionary +0.4%, Tech +0.3%, Financials +0.2%

Declining Sectors: Industrials -0.5%, Health Care -0.4%, Consumer Staples -0.4%, Energy -0.2%, Materials -0.1%, Utilities -0.1%

MIDDAY LUNCH

Dow 10557.43  -9.15, Nasdaq 2331.32  +5.02, S&P 1138.63  +0.01 

Telecom is having a good day with the sector leading the market with a +1.4% gain.  In the sector AT&T (T) 25.28  +0.29, +1.19% and Verizon (VZ) 29.66 +0.43, +1.50%, Sprint (S) 3.45 +0.17, +5.18%  are leading the way.

Meanwhile, health care, consumer staples, and industrials continue to trading lower today.
Overall though stocks are stuck stock in a tight trading range today, this has caused mixed results among the major indices.

The Nasdaq has received support today from large cap tech stocks in trading.  Apple (AAPL) 219.28 +0.33, +0.15%, Cisco (CSCO) 25.94 +0.73, +2.90%, Microsoft 28.75 +0.16, +0.57%, and Research In Motion (RIMM) 73.25 +3.75, 5.40% are all trading higher.

McDonalds (MCD) 65.29 +1.62, +2.54% hit a new 52 week high today on news that global sales rose +4.8 percent in February, topping some analysts’ estimates, as demand in Asia countered snow-hampered results in the U.S.

MORNING COFFEE

New Short Sale Program. The White House's has new program in a attempt to stem the foreclosure crisis.  The program allows homeowners to sell their houses for less than what they owe, and gives them $1,500 to move. The process, known as a short sale, will also make lenders forgive the difference between the sale price of the property and what they're actually owed. The move could potentially help hundreds of thousands of delinquent borrowers from among the 5 million households that are behind on their mortgages and face possible foreclosure.

China’s Yuan vs. Dollar. China struck a more flexible tone on currency appreciation over the weekend, central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said the yuan's de-facto peg to the dollar a "special measure" used as a temporary response to the financial crisis. He also said China will eventual move away from its current exchange-rate policies, though change is unlikely in the near future.

Upgrades
Research In Motion (RIMM): BMO Capital Markets raised their rating from Market Perform to Outperform and raised their target price from $70.00 to $88.00.

Yahoo! (YHOO): JMP Securities raised their rating from Market Perform to Market Outperform and raised their target price to $21.00.

Downgrades
Fifth Third (FTIB): FBR Capital lowered their rating from Outperform to Market Perform and placed a target price of $14.00.

Coverage Resumed
Cisco Systems (CSCO): JP Morgan resumed coverage with a Overweight rating.

·         Futures: Dow flat. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq -0.1%. Crude +0.4% to $81.84. Gold flat at $1135.30.

·         Asia: Nikkei +2.1% to 10586. Hang Seng +2.0% to 21197. Shanghai+0.7% to 3053. BSE +0.6% to 17103.

·         Europe: London -0.3% to 5582. Paris -0.1% to 3905. Frankfurt -0.1% to 5870.

Friday, March 05, 2010

CLOSING BELL

Dow 10566.20  +122.06, Nasdaq 2326.35  +34.04, S&P 1138.70  +15.73 

A smaller-than-expected decline in February nonfarm payrolls provided traders a reason to bid stocks higher, and financials had the best gains for the second straight day.

Stocks were higher all day after the nonfarm payrolls showed that only 36,000 jobs were lost compared to the estimated 68,000 that economist had expected.  The number includes the possible negative impact the North East snowstorms had on the economy.  Once the street saw the numbers the market took off from there, since they had anticipated worse than expected numbers.  Additionally, the unemployment rate came in better than expected at 9.7%.

Because of the possibly stronger economy the dollar rallied from over -1% losses to a +0.4% gain, but ended the day fractionally lower.  This caused Treasury’s to be under pressure all day.

Stocks were able to put together their best percentage gain in two weeks with more than 90% of the names in the S&P 500 gaining today.

Financials ended up +2.0% today as all 79 components of the S&P 500 sector posted gains.   Energy stocks also had a great day the sector ended up +1.8% on the belief that a stronger economy was ahead.

Oil also provided support for the CRB Commodity Index, which closed with a +0.8% gain.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +2.0%, Energy +1.8%, Consumer Discretionary +1.6%, Industrials +1.5%, Tech +1.4%, Materials +1.4%, Health Care +1.2%, Utilities +1.1%, Consumer Staples +0.5%, Telecom +0.1%

Declining Sectors: None

MIDDAY LUNCH

Dow 10526.14  +83.44, Nasdaq 2317.51  +25.74, S&P 1133.84  +10.87 

Stocks continue to trade to the plus side with 90% of the S&P trading higher, but they are off of their session highs.  Because of the strength in stocks and commodities today Treasuries have been under pressure. The benchmark 10-year Note is down 22 ticks yielding 3.70%.

The CRB Commodity Index has pulled back. It’s now trading with a +0.7% gain after it was up more than 1% earlier in the day.  The dip comes as the dollar has gained strength making its way up from negative ground and back to the neutral line.

Stocks began to take off after the release of the latest job number.  The U.S. unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent and payrolls fell less than the forecasted 68,000 job losses. This indicated the labor market strengthened even with the recent snowstorms.

Apple (AAPL) 219.09 +8.38, +3.98% is higher today, after the company announced the highly anticipated iPad will reach store shelves by April 3.

Fannie Mae (FNM) 1.01 +0.0183, +1.85% and Freddie Mac (FRE) 1.22 0.00, 0.00% are in the news today after Congressman Barney Frank made a comment that loans held by these companies, in many cases, are now worthless, but banks are reluctant to release their claims.  He also said that “Many investors have told us that they're ready to get something instead of nothing.”  This led the Treasury to have to follow-up with a statement that they stand behind the implied government guarantee of the GSE’s.

MORNING COFFEE

Non-Farm Payrolls.  Traders will be watching very carefully today when at 8:30 A.M EST the government will release that latest employment numbers.  Last week the government said the that numbers were affected negatively by the recent snow storms.  Economists are looking for a decline of 68,000 versus the prior months 20,000 decline.  A worst than expected number could cause the market to react negatively, fearing a double dip recession.

TiVo Shares Rocket Higher. TiVo (TIVO) shares rocketed +62% in trading yesterday after the company won a key appeal ruling against Dish Network (DISH) and EchoStar (SATS).  A federal court found that Dish Network and EchoStar are infringing on TiVo's DVR patents  and they should stop providing digital-video recording services. The ruling paves the way for TiVo to receive around $300 million in damages and sanctions. 

UBS Agrees to Settlement. UBS (UBS) reached a deal to buy back $200 million of auction-rate securities and pay a $6.64 million fine to settle charges it misled investors into thinking the securities were as safe as cash. The deal, reached with the Texas State Securities Board, covers investors left out of a 2008 nationwide settlement in which UBS agreed to buy back $18.6 billion of ARS and pay a $150 million fine.

FHA Understates Risk Exposure.  A group of economists from the New York Federal Reserve and New York University are saying that the Federal Housing Administration has understated how much risk it has taken on. In their study they found that the FHA is overlooking factors that could signal higher losses, making it more likely that the agency will have to ask for additional taxpayer funds to stay afloat. In their study they found that as many as 40% of FHA-insured mortgages are worth more than the homes that secure them, and as many as 14% of the mortgages may be for more than 115% of the home's value. The FHA's numbers put the latter figure at only 6%.

Bank Tax Will Hurt Consumers.  The Congressional Budget Office completed a study that concludes the White House's proposed $90 billion bank tax would have only a minimal effect on firms, and the fee would ultimately be "borne to varying degrees by an institution’s customers, employees, and investors." It would also result in a "slight decrease" in the total amount of credit available.

·         Futures: Dow +0.3%. S&P +0.4%. Nasdaq +0.2%. Crude +0.6% to $80.71. Gold +0.1% to $1134.70.

·          Asia: Nikkei +2.2% to 10369. Hang Seng +1.0% to 20788. Shanghai+0.3% to 3031. BSE +0.1% to 16994.

·         Europe: London +0.6% to 5558. Paris +0.7% to 3857. Frankfurt +0.5% to 5822.

Thursday, March 04, 2010

MIDDAY LUNCH

Dow 10414.75  +17.99, Nasdaq 2283.02  +2.34,S&P 1119.70  +0.91 

The energy sector is having a tough day and now trades at a fresh session low with a -0.8% loss, which is worse than any other major sector. Oil well services and equipment outfits are especially weak; in particular, National Oilwell Varco (NOV) 43.11 -1.22, -2.76% and Nabors Industries (NBR) 22.44 –0.76, -3.28%.

Energy commodities are also weak. Crude oil prices are down -0.9% lower at $80.15 per barrel and natural gas is down -3.9% to $4.57 per MMBtu.

Trading remains light today, as traders take a cautious stance ahead of the release of tomorrow’s non-farm payroll numbers.  The administration has already warned that the numbers will be not look good, claiming the resent snow storms affected the numbers.  On average, economists expect that February nonfarm payrolls fell by 65,000 after a 20,000 drop in January.

Financials are showing gains today. Goldman Sachs (GS) 163.01 +5.29, +3.36% has led the sector to a +0.7% gain.  According to The Wall Street Journal, Goldman provided debt swaps that enabled the Greek government to use favorable exchange rates to record some of its debt, which was offered as part of Greece's efforts to strengthen its fiscal condition.

Deutsche Bank (DB) 67.29 +0.73, 1.10% is also posting gains, even though the company was downgraded by Moody's.  Moody's put a long-term deposit and senior debt rating of Aa3 on the company, down from Aa1.  Deutsche Bank's bank financial strength rating was lowered to C+ from B.

MORNING COFFEE

BoE Leaves Rates Unchanged. The Bank of England left its bank rate at 0.5% and announced it will not extend its £200B ($319 billion) asset purchase program.

Beige Book Mixed. In the latest Beige Book report, the Federal Reserve said nine out of twelve regional districts saw economic activity improve modestly in February.  They also noted that severe winter weather on the East Coast hurt several areas. Credit conditions remained in bad shape, though consumer spending showed signs of improvement. Additionally, wage and price pressures were muted except for commodities such as lumber and raw materials.

Problems With Toyota Brakes? The Department of Transportation is investigating complaints of sudden acceleration in cars that Toyota (TM) has already repaired as part of its recent recalls. A DoT spokeswoman said the reports are still unverified, but that officials are conducting interviews with consumers about the issues.

Urban Outfitters (URBN): Reported Q4 EPS of $0.45 beating estimates by +$0.05 on revenue of $588 million.

Foot Locker (FL): Reported Q4 EPS of $0.24 missing estimates by -$0.01 on revenue of $1.3 billion.

Take-Two (TTWO): Reported 1Q2010 EPS of -$0.31 beating estimates by +0.20 on revenue of $163 million. The company also gave Q2 guidance above current estimates.

Upgrades
Coca-Cola (KO): UBS raised their rating from Neutral to Buy.

Boeing (BA): UBS raised their rating from Sell to Neutral.

FedEx (FDX): Morgan Keegan raised their rating from Market Perform to Outperform.

BB&T Corp (BBT): Bernstein raised their rating from Market Perform to Outperform.

Downgrades
Fifth Third (FTIB): Bernstein lowered their rating from Outperform to Market Perform.

Coverage Initiated
Boeing (BA): C.K. Cooper initiated coverage with a Buy rating.


·         Futures: Dow +0.04%. S&P -0.03%. Nasdaq +0.03%. Crude +0.09% to $80.94. Gold -0.22% to $1140.80.

·         Asia: Nikkei -1.1% to 10146. Hang Seng -1.4% to 20576. Shanghai -2.4% to 3023. BSE -0.2% to 16972.

·         Europe: London +0.1% to 5541. Paris -0.2% to 3835. Frankfurt -0.2% to 5808.